Mentions of supercycles in the media have leapt by 400% over the past month as commodity prices have jumped. Speculation about a commodity supercycle has in turn seen dry bulk operators report a frenzied month of fixtures, prompting many shipowners to rekindle memories of shipping’s last great supercycle, which came to a shuddering halt in 2008.
The February issue of Splash Extra takes a look at the potential for both a commodities and shipping supercycle and features the thoughts of owners who experienced dry bulk’s last boom such as Precious’s Khalid Hashim and Mandarin’s Tim Huxley as well as experienced shipping cycle analysts Dr Martin Stopford and Dr Roar Adland.
“Personally, I have to go back to 2007/2008 to remember the excitement that we all felt when rates were then on a tear. You could call it what you want but supercycle certainly does seem to fit this bull market,” commented Hashim, the managing director of Thai-listed Precious Shipping.
The lead article in this issue looks at Peter Livanos’s decision to delist GasLog, and what this means big picture in the decades old debate about the merits of being a public or private shipowner, featuring the views of top names in ship finance including Dagfinn Lunde, Tobias Koenig, Randy Giveans, Philip Clausius and Morten Arntzen among others.
“The debate – public versus private – will go on forever as both the shipping markets and the capital markets are both very volatile and mostly are not in sync,” Lunde, the chairman of eShipfinance.com, told Splash Extra.
You can read the article here.